The most heated trade war is with China, and it’s there that I fear Trump has particularly miscalculated. He seems to be waiting for President Xi Jinping to cry uncle and demand relief, but that’s unlikely; instead, it may be the United States that will be most desperate to end the trade conflict.

Beijing, which imports far fewer goods from the U.S. than it exports, is considering a range of nontariff measures amid growing trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies.