The S&P 500 peaked at 6,144 in February 2025. If the U.S. economy suffers a recession, the index could drop 31% to 4,239, provided its performance aligns with the historical average. That implies 23% downside from the current level. In short, history says the stock market would indeed crash if President Trump's tariffs cause a recession.

In 100 days full of surprises for investors, the S&P 500 and Dow nearly recouped their April declines – even with a worse-than-expect GDP report.

The Dow and S&P 500 look to notch a sixth day of gains as investors await more trade news and an easing of tariffs on automakers expected to be announced by President Trump as his 100 days are marked this week.