Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of ...

As you have probably heard, a modest-sized asteroid will pass really quite close to the earth in seven years. Perhaps very close. Maybe even closer than that. If this happens, it won’t be civilisation ...

So far there have been 86 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

When you get access to some data, a first step is to see if you understand it: do the variables measure what you expect, are there surprising values, and so on. Often, you will be surprised by some of ...