Under the framework deal struck by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Trump at his Turnberry golf resort on Sunday, the EU has swallowed a broad-based “baseline” US tariff of 15 per cent, including crucially for cars, but not for steel, which will be subject to a quota system.

"In a non-deal scenario without another delay of US tariffs, I see the EU going for a tit-for-tat approach, ie imposing 30% tariffs on selected US goods, not yet all goods, like the well-known motorcycles, cars, clothing and alcohol," he said in emailed comments.